The next era of digital trust: key PKI trends and predictions for 2026
PKI in 2026: automation, PQC action, vendor consolidation, AI-assisted CLM, MSP growth, passkeys, and the rise of AI model signing.
Table of Contents
- The automation of certificate renewal will become the most important part of identity management
- October 1, 2026, will be the day we hear about certificates breaking the internet
- 2026 will be the year of action on PQC
- MSPs will play a critical role in keeping businesses below the Fortune 500 secure and operational when it comes to certificate management
- In 2026, PQC standards will reach maturity
- AI becomes a practical tool in certificate management
- In 2026, one question will be: “Is this AI model signed and trustworthy?”
- Consolidation of security vendors continues
- Passkeys will surge, but not without missteps
The next era of digital trust is here and it’s moving fast. As organizations brace for shorter certificate lifespans, quantum-safe cryptography, and the explosion of digital identities across humans, devices, and AI models, 2026 will be a defining year for PKI. From automation becoming the cornerstone of identity management to MSPs stepping up as strategic partners, this year’s trends signal a fundamental shift in how enterprises secure trust at scale. Here’s what to expect and why proactive action is no longer optional.
Prediction 1: The automation of certificate renewal will become the most important part of identity management
As the sheer volume of digital identities for human users, devices, code, and AI models continues to skyrocket, digital certificates are emerging as the only scalable and cryptographically sound answer to secure identity management. The traditional reliance on static passwords and even new MFA methods will be insufficient against evolving threats, pushing organizations to adopt PKI-backed certificates as the new gold standard for secure identification. Consequently, the ability to automate the entire certificate lifecycle, from issuance to the increasingly rapid renewal cycles, will shift from a tactical IT function to the most critical, strategic element of enterprise identity and access management (IAM). This move will finally ensure the necessary crypto-agility to combat advanced attacks and future-proof enterprise security against quantum threats.
Prediction 2: October 1, 2026, will be the day we hear about certificates breaking the internet
As early as the week of October 1, 2026, expect headlines about unexpected outages as the wave of 6-month SSL certificates issued in March begin to expire. While many Fortune 500 companies may weather the storm and avoid disruption thanks to the adoption of robust Certificate Lifecycle Management, the story will be different for smaller organizations and critical systems further down the chain. While organizations with skilled IT teams might resolve these issues within an hour, smaller businesses could have unknown recovery times. October 1 will be another wake-up call that shorter certificate lifespans demand proactive management or risk making the news for all the wrong reasons.
Prediction 3: 2026 will be the year of action on post-quantum cryptography (PQC)
2024 was the year the industry woke up to PQC with NIST finalizing the foundational standards, and PQC protection began to quietly roll out across major platforms like Apple iMessage, Cloudflare and Google Chrome. In 2025, enterprises had to begin getting wise to PQC. Facing twin deadlines for PQC migration and shorter certificate lifespans, 90% of organizations allocated budgets and recognized the monumental task ahead: assessing and building cryptographic inventories. 2026 will be the year of execution. With budgets set and the first major certificate lifespan deadline hitting in March, enterprises will pivot from planning to actively implementing cryptographic discovery, pilot PQC rollouts, and the full automation required for crypto-agility.
Prediction 4: MSPs will play a critical role in keeping businesses below the Fortune 500 secure and operational when it comes to certificate management
With organizations looking to consolidate vendors, MSPs will emerge as the single point of contact, integrating certificate lifecycle management with broader security and risk solutions. Instead of juggling multiple vendors for different pieces of the puzzle, businesses will turn to MSPs to be their strategic partner ensuring continuity and compliance in an increasingly fragmented security landscape. With the proliferation of certificates, along with short certificate maximum term validity, certificate lifecycle management will prove to be a rapidly emerging revenue opportunity for MSPs.
Prediction 5: In 2026, PQC standards will reach maturity
By the end of 2026, we should expect to see formal definitions for PQC versions of all major certificate types. Standards bodies like IETF and the CA/Browser Forum are moving through standardization processes, and SSL/TLS server certificates will be one of the most critical (and controversial) focus areas. Anywhere there’s a TLS handshake, PQC will start appearing, making quantum-safe key exchange the first practical step toward readiness. Traditional PKI architectures struggle with PQC’s large key sizes which has led to the proposal of a new PKI architectures such as “photosynthesis” led by Google and Cloudflare, which looks to reshape certificate morphology and introduce blockchain-based storage models.
Prediction 6: AI becomes a practical tool in certificate management
2026 will see AI emerge in adjacent areas of Certificate Lifecycle Management. We can expect AI-powered tools that help organizations locate rogue certificates, predict renewal needs, and streamline compliance. These efficiencies will become critical as certificate volumes grow and lifespans shrink.
Prediction 7: In 2026, one question will be: “Is this AI model signed and trustworthy?”
The proliferation of Small Language Models (SLMs) running at the edge will force the need to begin model signing in order to secure the integrity of AI components. Think of it as taking the concept of code signing to ensure no one is tampering with code and applying it to a different environment, in this case SLMs. This will dramatically expand the use cases for Certificate Lifecycle Management beyond traditional web infrastructure, making it the central engine for managing digital trust in AI models and ultimately accelerating the adoption of PKI-backed digital identity as a mandatory requirement.
Prediction 8: Consolidation of security vendors continues
With certificate lifecycles shortening, PQC migration looming, and automation becoming essential, organizations are looking for fewer vendors that can deliver end-to-end identity and trust services. Expect more mergers and acquisitions among PKI, CLM, and broader cybersecurity providers as they race to offer unified platforms and simplify procurement for overstretched IT teams. The consolidation of the solution set and partnerships will be key.
Prediction 9: Passkeys will surge, but not without missteps
PKI-based passkeys are gaining momentum as governments and tech leaders push for passwordless authentication. Expect broader adoption of WebAuthn and FIDO standards in 2026, especially in business-to-consumer scenarios where mass authentication is critical. However, challenges remain. While passkeys work well for decentralized consumer use cases, in enterprise environments they collide with governance needs. For example: deprecating credentials when employees leave. Without mature lifecycle controls, organizations may implement passkeys in improper contexts, creating new security and operational headaches.