Podcast
Root Causes 351: 2024 Predictions


Hosted by
Tim Callan
Chief Compliance Officer
Jason Soroko
Fellow
Original broadcast date
December 27, 2023
We look forward to 2024 and predict trends for PKI, certificates, and digital identity. We discuss shortening certificate lifespans, Multi-perspective Domain Validation (MPDV), eIDAS 2.0, OCSP, post-quantum cryptography (PQC), Certificate Lifecycle Management (CLM), passwords, root stores, and government versus encryption.
Podcast Transcript
Lightly edited for flow and brevity.
Prediction number three here is that eIDAS 2.0 is going to really matter. eIDAS 2.0 is going to set the stage for widespread use of digital certificates by citizens in a way that eIDAS 1.0 never really did.
So, we talked in our lookback episode about how OCSP is on life support, and I think 2024 could very well be the year by the end of the year where for a public CA OCSP is purely optional.
The first one – and this probably isn’t controversial – is that enterprises wake up to post quantum cryptography. So, if 2023 was the year of industry waking up to post quantum cryptography, which it really was and we talked about that in our lookback episode. 2023 was the year where vendors and people started to say, oh geez, I need to do something about this. 2024 is going to be the year where just your average department becomes aware of the fact that PQC is coming, that they are going to need to implement it, why they are going to need to implement it and they are going to start to educate themselves and understand that it’s coming and what they need to do about it. I think that is what we see in 2024. Alright?
The next one is related to this. CLM on the ascent. So, 2023 was a CLM on the ascent year, I think. I think you agree with me, right, Jay?
Alright. Now the last two, these are perpetual. These have been true every year you and I have been doing this podcast. We’ve been doing it for four years. I think these will be true for the next four years.
The first one is the continued deterioration of the password. So, passwords are just really weak, really bad, really horrible. We’ve talked about this more times than I can think of in our 340-ish episodes, and we’ll talk about it many times to come and there’s more and more recognition of the fact that passwords are terrible. 2023 was a pretty big year in terms of the breakdown of the password and I think 2024 we are going to see that continue.
Now let me ask you this question, which is when are we gonna be able to announce the death of the password?
And it’s like that’s crazy to me because the only reason why a government would want to do that is for nefarious purposes. There’s no good reason. So, folks, government vs. the internet, it’s getting crazy out there.

