Understanding the timeline of quantum computing: when will it become reality?
Quantum computing is moving from theory to reality. Discover the key milestones, explore when it will become commercially viable, and learn how to prepare your business for the quantum era.
We’ve entered a new era of digital transformation, and it’s not just driven by artificial intelligence. While AI continues to reshape industries, another groundbreaking force is rising with the potential to upend everything we know about computing: quantum computing. Long in development, quantum technology is finally stepping out of research labs and beginning to attract attention beyond the confines of the IT community.
Depending on who you ask, this development can be framed as a powerful opportunity or a major cybersecurity threat. Both perceptions hold some element of truth, but these seemingly opposing realities of quantum are easier to understand in the context of quantum computing history. To that end, we've provided a detailed timeline, revealing the fascinating history of quantum computing, its rapid progress, and when it’s expected to become commercially viable. Along the way, we'll demonstrate what it means for organizations to achieve quantum-readiness.
What is quantum computing?
Quantum computing draws on foundational principles of quantum mechanics to conduct calculations using quantum bits (qubits) instead of classical computing's bit-based binary code. While traditional bits can represent either 0 or 1, qubits can exist in a state of superposition, meaning they can represent 0 and 1 at the same time. This allows quantum computers to tackle complex calculations at an extraordinary pace. Quantum entanglement, another key principle, occurs when two or more qubits become intrinsically linked, so that the state of one qubit is directly correlated with the state of another, even when separated by large distances.
Together, superposition and entanglement unleash remarkable computing power. These concepts boost computational efficiency and enable quantum systems to perform operations that are practically impossible for classical computers.
Why quantum computing matters for the future
Quantum computing could unleash exciting innovations, extending the advantages of artificial intelligence and machine learning by providing the increased computing power needed to analyze complex data sets. This would allow quantum supercomputers to solve problems that have remained stubbornly out of reach for classical computing solutions.
This could have far-reaching implications that affect every business and industry imaginable. In healthcare, for example, quantum computing could accelerate drug discovery while also supporting genomic medicine. In banking, quantum technology could support improved risk modeling, while supply chains may see better route planning and demand forecasting.
Timeline of quantum computing development
Quantum computing may seem like a new concept, but this technology has actually been in development for several decades. Below, we’ve highlighted key points in the development of quantum computing, demonstrating not only how much time and effort have gone into this transformation, but also revealing the now accelerated rate of quantum developments.
Foundational years: theoretical breakthroughs
Quantum technology has not always generated widespread public attention, but this concept has long sparked interest among forward-thinking physicists. We can trace the foundations of quantum back to the 1960s and 1970s. For example, the forward-thinking Richard Feynman achieved early breakthroughs surrounding quantum electrodynamics and the complex behaviors of electrons.
Also influential: physicist and inventor Stephen Wiesner, who proposed the concept of quantum money. The ideas at the core of quantum money eventually formed the basis for quantum cryptography, which we will discuss in more detail below.
Despite Wiesner's contributions, David Deutsch is typically referred to as the "father of quantum computing." He has certainly earned this distinction, however, as he proposed a universal quantum computer that could make the most of quantum principles and perform calculations that remained out of reach for classical computers.
Additional computer science breakthroughs arrived during the 1990s, largely in the form of new and impressive algorithms. These included Peter Shor's algorithm, which dramatically improves the factoring of large integers, and Lov Grover's algorithm, which speeds up unstructured search problems. Both demonstrated the extraordinary speed with which quantum systems could solve specific types of problems.
During these first few decades of quantum exploration, concepts such as superconducting qubits, superposition, and entanglement began to take shape, forming the theoretical basis for the exciting technological applications that would follow during the 2000s and 2010s.
Early hardware and first demonstrations
While quantum concepts remained largely theoretical in the 1980s and 1990s, early breakthroughs in the 2000s revealed how these concepts could eventually enter the mainstream. Influential businesses such as IBM and D-Wave began to invest more heavily in quantum research, leading to innovations such as the IBM Quantum Experience. This was quickly followed by the D-Wave One, which was referred to as the original "commercially available quantum computer."
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was heavily involved from the very beginning, unveiling a programmable quantum information processor that revealed the potential of future quantum systems. At this point, basic versions of quantum algorithms could be successfully executed, although the number of qubits remained limited.
Modern quantum era: rapid advancement
The quest for quantum computing has accelerated rapidly in recent years. While it began as a crawl, it now feels like a full-blown sprint, with the finish line now within view. Already, major tech firms are racing to scale qubit counts.
In 2019, Google made headlines by claiming quantum supremacy, demonstrating that its quantum processor could solve a specific problem faster than the most powerful classical supercomputers. While the task had limited real-world application, this milestone served as proof of concept that quantum systems can outperform classical ones under certain conditions. It marked a pivotal step forward in the race toward practical quantum advantage.
Another groundbreaking development? Widespread access to quantum hardware, made available by well-regarded, cloud-based platforms such as IBM Q, Azure Quantum, and Amazon Braket. These systems provide expanded opportunities for leveraging quantum technology and may even lead to a new wave of quantum breakthroughs.
When will quantum computing be available?
There is no denying that the quantum movement has come a long way, but this still invites the question: When will quantum computing be available at scale? Technically, access already exists through cloud-based platforms, but most systems today are classified as noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. These machines are powerful but still face significant limitations, including short coherence times, high error rates, and limited qubit stability. As a result, they are best suited for research and experimentation rather than widespread commercial use. However, rapid progress continues toward more stable and fault-tolerant systems.
Timelines and estimates vary, but a deadline established by the Cloud Security Alliance offers a glimpse into the future of quantum: this group strongly recommends that enterprises achieve full quantum-readiness by April 14th, 2030. Commercial use cases may impact enterprise-specific quantum timelines, and in fields such as finance, there will be a stronger need to be proactive about the potential challenges and risks that quantum computing will bring about in the near future.
Research for maximizing real-world impact
As mentioned above, experts at Google have made it clear: We have already reached quantum supremacy. Now, the next big frontier involves the quantum advantage. This means uncovering actionable, error-corrected systems that support real-world tasks. Essentially, researchers have made the theoretical strides needed to fully understand quantum's possibilities — and now we are seeing the once significant divide between theory and practice shrink at a rapid pace.
Breakthroughs are happening quickly
Don't assume the quantum revolution represents a future concern. Breakthroughs are emerging at a dizzying pace, and, at this point, it's clear that we are in the final stretches. Cloud-accessible quantum machines are already live, but this is only the beginning.
Several major developments have been announced by big names such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and IBM. IBM, for example, has outlined an ambitious roadmap that envisions a "quantum system with 200 qubits capable of running 100 million gates” by 2029. Meanwhile, Microsoft claims to have "engineered a brand-new type of qubit," forming a crucial step on the path to a "fault-tolerant quantum computer."
NIST’s post-quantum cryptography timeline
NIST provides valuable guidance surrounding quantum adoption and risk mitigation, especially in the context of encryption. NIST's post-quantum cryptography (PQC) initiative has released an important draft, revealing the intention for the full deprecation of RSA-2048 and ECC-256 by 2030. Furthermore, classical algorithms that are vulnerable to quantum attacks are expected to be disallowed by 2035, according to NIST’s draft roadmap.
Based on these insights, it is clear that the cryptographic impact of quantum computing will be fully realized in the near future. At this point, it is critical to begin auditing cryptographic infrastructure and, better yet, shift towards post-quantum algorithms.
Preparing for the quantum computing era
It's time for a shift in mindset surrounding quantum advancements. This does not merely represent a future possibility, but rather, involves an active shift away from classical computing and algorithms — a transition that already is well underway. Enterprises that fail to get on board risk not only losing a potential competitive edge in a fast-paced technological ecosystem but also could suffer considerable vulnerabilities as once-effective algorithms are phased out.
There is still progress to be made, however, and there is enough time to prepare before quantum computing sees widespread adoption. This effort should begin with prompt risk assessments, which can reveal quantum vulnerabilities related to cryptography and other security concerns. Shifting to quantum-aware vendors is also an essential step. Enterprises should vet their vendors thoroughly to ensure they are just as serious about achieving quantum-readiness.
Do not underestimate the value of a quantum-ready workforce. This can be achieved through strategic hiring. Focusing on professionals with quantum experience or a clear aptitude for technological transformation. Training is just as important. It is more than possible for current employees to achieve quantum fluency so long as they receive plenty of guidance via workshops or certification programs.
Start preparing now for quantum computing threats with Sectigo
Falling behind means growing vulnerable to considerable cryptographic threats. It's time to get quantum-ready with detailed infrastructure assessments and future-proofing strategies. These should incorporate post-quantum cryptography, along with quantum-ready digital Certificate Lifecycle Management.
There's no need to feel overwhelmed; Sectigo can guide this journey and help you feel confident as you prepare for a quantum-centric future. With cryptographic concerns strategically managed, you can embrace the advanced computing possibilities that quantum will unleash.
As you embark on this post-quantum journey, leverage purpose-built solutions such as Sectigo Certificate Manager (SCM) and tap into the innovation of Sectigo PQC Labs. Together, these two provide the tools and expertise needed to implement your quantum readiness strategy with confidence. Get started with our Q.U.A.N.T. framework today.